Monsoon | Disaster | Lives lost | Infrastructural damages | Government response
Nepal witnessed unprecedented rainfall last week spanning three days (Thursday to Saturday evening) triggering floods, landslides (mudslides) and flash floods across different parts of the country — leading to bereaving human casualties and properties in 23 districts of Bagmati, Koshi and Madhesh provinces.
What transpired?
Last week, rain clouds formed over the Bay of Bengal and moved across India into Nepal. Concurrently, moisture-laden air which contained a significant amount of water vapour flowed from the Arabian Sea into Nepal via India.
The sudden convergence of these two weather systems led to the development of dense clouds over Nepal, resulting in prolonged heavy rainfall.
Earlier, on July 7 and 8 this year, Dodhara in Kanchanpur district experienced an unprecedented rainfall (624 mm) within 24 hours, attributed to the confluence of moisture-laden air from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Hanumannagar and Sundarpur in the same district recorded 573.6 mm and 555.8 mm of rain respectively.
Record breaking rainfall
According to the DHM, 25 centres in 14 districts broke their previous 24-hour rainfall records between Thursday and Saturday. The highest rainfall was recorded in Daman, Makwanpur with 410.0 mm of rain, breaking its previous record of 373.2 mm on July 20, 1993.
Baldyangadhi of Palpa district in Lumbini province recorded 252.0 mm of rain, from its earlier record of 90.4 mm on September 16, 2012 — an increment of 178.76%
Chapagaon of Lalitpur and the Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu recorded 323.5 mm and 239.7 mm of rainfall respectively, both exceeding their prior record of 200.5 mm and 177.0 mm measured on July 23, 2002.
Climate change or not?
Scientists have been warning that rising sea surface temperatures due to global warming have led to the frequent formation of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal. These low-pressure systems create areas of lower atmospheric pressure resulting in cloud formation and precipitation, significantly influencing weather patterns.
“There’s something wrong with entire monsoon patterns and systems”, explained Anil Pokhrel, NDRRMA chief, in a recent interview with the_farsight, citing the example of the 2021 floods that hit Mustang, Manang and Gorkha, Bajura and Jajarkot, “which is why it’s attributed to climate change.”
“In 2021, the monsoon started and ended with a big bang as a big system [monsoon] from the west came in and battered all over Nepal [in October after Dashain] when the monsoon was already declared over,” he said, adding that paddy grains wiped out that year, causing a loss of over Rs 12 billion, while 31 people were killed in Panchthar.
“So, look at the two extremes (hinting at the Melamchi disaster the same year). These two systems were completely outliers for us. This is exactly how disasters would impact a Himalayan country like ours.”
The torrential rainfall last week is also unprecedented [see graph above]. This year, the monsoon has moved in and out frequently and the gaps between the monsoon rains are abnormal.
Monsoon likely to persist
The weather has improved since Monday. Monsoons are likely to persist, but severe downpours are highly unlikely.
Even if the rain subsides, the risk of soil erosion remains, increasing the chances of landslides in vulnerable areas. Travellers are advised to exercise caution.
Casualties and displacements
A massive mudslide at Jhyaplekhola in Dhading on Saturday buried four vehicles, including two tourist buses, a passenger bus and a van — killing 35 people.
The incident serves as a haunting reminder of the Simaltal tragedy that occurred just two and half months earlier (July 12), when two buses were engulfed by a mudflow and swept into the Trisuli River at midnight, resulting in 62 fatalities. Both the buses remain missing.
A total of 432 people have been killed while 104 were reported missing in monsoon-induced disasters like heavy rainfall, flood, landslide and lightning, among others since the arrival of the monsoon on June 11. The death toll stands at 459, and the number of missing remains the same when counted from January 1.
Still, thousands are stranded across highways after road disruptions. Many are reported to have resorted to heading to their destinations on foot.
Shilpee Theatre’s artist Yubraj Ghimire with his nine other colleagues walked their way to Kathmandu, abandoning the boarded vehicle following the Jhyaplekhola landslide on Tribhuvan Highway. Sharing the ordeal on his Facebook timeline, he said that they reached home “safely after 28 hours walking the Galchhi-Thankot road — a difficult road section for children and elderly people.”
Losses and damages
Road:
As of Tuesday evening, 17 out of 23 major highways remain completely blocked. While 23 highways across the country were impacted, according to NDRRMA, incurring an estimated loss of over Rs 2 billion due to roadblocks and damaged bridges.
The recent disasters have damaged two major trade routes with China — Tatopani and Rasuwagadhi. The bridges and roads on both routes under both countries’ jurisdiction have been washed away — consequently stranding millions worth of imports at the customs, consignments ordered in light of the festive season.
Road disruptions as of October 1, 2024, 5:00 PM (Nepal Police)
Energy:
Twenty-two hydroelectric power plants and nine transmission lines were damaged, resulting in a disruption of 1,000 MW of power generation, including 456 MW from the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Plant. The resumption of the plant is uncertain, said the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). The overall loss in the energy infrastructure has been estimated to be over Rs 2.45 billion.
NEA also informed that the country imported 300 megawatts of electricity from India on Saturday after the flooding reduced production capacity by 35%, and has temporarily suspended its ongoing exports to India. However, the power supply body stated that there’s no risk of load shedding.
The disaster has also damaged transmission infrastructures of the Kabeli Corridor, completely disrupting the power supply to Ilam, Panchthar and Taplejung districts, which are still facing blackouts.
On another note, Nepal, India and Bangladesh are set to sign a tripartite power export deal on October 3.
Agriculture:
The rainfall destroyed 58,476 hectares of paddy across the country. Preliminary loss estimates considering several crops, livestock, and fish account for over Rs 6 billion, said the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development.
Weak government response
Pre-disaster
Weather forecasts had warned about the likelihood of heavy precipitation a week earlier, with the Met Office specifically predicting significant rainfall on September 27-28. A low-pressure system entering the country would raise the current of major rivers across the country for the next four days, the federal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) said in its special flood forecast bulletin Thursday.
Based on the DHM forecast, the NDRRMA had issued a ‘High Alert Notice’, advising suspension of night bus services on hilly and mountainous highways across 56 districts for Friday and Saturday. Additionally, radio bulletins and SMS alerts urged the public to take precautions.
Despite accurate weather forecasts and dissemination of high alert notices, there were significant shortcomings in preparations for damage control, primarily in saving lives.
Post-disaster
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, on Friday night, took it to his X-account to give his “heart” for the ongoing havoc in the country while he marched towards Harvard Kennedy School.
PM Oli departed for the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 20, a week prior to the monsoon catastrophe. He returned Monday but had a dismissive interaction with the press, mostly unempathetic.
No cabinet meeting has been held so far although Prakash Man Singh was appointed Acting Prime Minister during Oli’s New York visit. Instead, Singh called an all-party meeting including cabinet ministers and ministry secretaries to discuss post-disaster planning.
Earlier on Saturday, Minister for Home Affairs Ramesh Lekhak assessed the situation and gave ‘necessary instructions’. The home minister is already facing the heat from the opposition along with his party members and must be held accountable in the parliament in the coming days.
A cluster co-lead meeting held at NDRRMA also called for collaboration with humanitarian organisations to enhance the effectiveness of the response and relief efforts.
Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) Mayor Balendra Shah informed the same day that KMC had mobilised 17 teams of municipal police, consisting of 300 officers and personnel, to manage the disaster and mitigate further risks caused by heavy rainfall in the metropolitan region.
On the field, however, things were ugly due to a lack of preparations. Nobody seemed prepared for such a scale of disaster despite early warnings and recent instances of extreme events in the country. Rescue workers logged in with limited gear and resources as usual and lacked coordination.
Evacuations, arrangements of shelters from disasters, sufficient heli-rescues, and the availability and use of advanced gears and equipment, and improved team coordination still seem a far-fetched idea in the country’s disaster response works. The reasons for this are often attributed to a lack of sufficient financial resources in the country.
On the other hand, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), a key opposition party, criticised the government’s disaster response in its central committee meeting on Sunday. The party’s Acting Spokesperson Manish Jha said that the situation “revealed the uselessness” of the two-thirds majority, claiming that the party prepared for anticipated disasters with the onset of monsoon in June when in government.
However, the party overlooked its own shortcomings in managing the wildfire crisis that unfolded this year that peaked through April and May when the party’s supremo Rabi Lamichhane held the chair of the Home Ministry then. Meanwhile, the party was fully engaged in Illam-2 bypolls and reviewing the subsequent loss.
Announcements of relief: Care after crisis
The government on Monday announced relief aid for temporary housing to families affected by recent floods and landslides. It will first conclude the compilation of beneficiaries within seven days and disburse the first subsidy instalment in the subsequent three days.
Similarly, the Bagmati government decided the same day to provide compensation of Rs 200,000 to the families of the deceased, and relief of Rs 100,000 to build temporary shelters for the displaced inside the province.
Moreover, a federal cabinet meeting held Tuesday decided to provide Rs 200,000 in support to the families of the bereaved and deposit Rs 1 billion in the disaster fund. Different tiers of government will be devising several relief packages across impacted areas in the coming days after the compilation of the estimates of losses. This will severely put a strain on the country’s treasury.
Potential developments in the coming days
Inflation is anticipated to rise as the crisis has significantly impacted various economic sectors while it will take days for major transportation routes to return to full operation.
Reportedly, prices of groceries have already gone up in several marketplaces citing road disruptions. The airline operators too inflated their domestic airfares seeing a potential rise in demand for flight tickets. Following significant backlash, the operators retracted their new airfares, but are expected to raise fares again soon.
An economic downturn is expected. This comes at a time when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently projected a recovery in Nepal’s economy. The IMF highlighted decelerating inflation as a positive indicator, while the ADB’s forecast was based on projected agricultural and electricity output growth and growing tourist arrivals since the pandemic. Weak consumer demand is expected to continue post-disaster.
The tourism season that begins in October is likely to be severely impacted in the aftermath of the disaster. Reports of booking cancellations are already coming in.
The upcoming festive season is also likely to be subdued for lower-income households, primarily due to rising prices and ongoing road disruptions. Many families may feel the financial strain as essential goods become more expensive and transportation issues hinder access to markets. Poverty is likely to increase with the economic shock.
Additionally, the emotional toll of the disaster may overshadow the usual excitement of celebrations.
Health experts warn of potential health crisis
Following the floods, health experts are warning of a potential health crisis.
The standing water creates ideal conditions for mosquito breeding, increasing the risk of dengue. In recent times, the dengue epidemic has evolved into one of the deadliest public health hazards.
In 2022, Nepal reported the highest ever 54,784 dengue cases spread across 76 districts out of 77, taking 88 lives. A total of 12,644 confirmed cases of Dengue have been reported so far this year across all seven provinces with six verified death cases.
Over the past three years, August and September have seen a rise in monsoon-induced disasters and dengue cases, hinting at a link between climate and health crises. Peak rainfall triggers floods and landslides, creating conditions that boost disease outbreaks.
If precautionary action isn’t taken, the combination of stagnant water, disrupted health services and heightened infectious disease risks could lead to a public health emergency.
Additionally, there are concerns about waterborne illnesses such as cholera and typhoid fever due to contaminated water sources. Lack of sanitation and healthcare services can further complicate the situation.
However, while the upcoming festive season is anticipated to be muted, the holiday period will still allow a window of opportunity for the government to shift focus away from disaster planning and reflection on governance and the factors that contributed to the human toll in the first place. Sadly, business as usual is expected to continue.
Edited by Sabin Jung Pande
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