Over 226,000 people could be affected by monsoon disasters this year

The government has approved the National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Action Plan, projecting below-average rainfall but increased risks of floods, landslides, heatwaves, and glacial lake outburst floods across Nepal.

The government has estimated that more than 226,000 people across Nepal could be affected by monsoon-related disasters this year, with Lumbini Province expected to face the highest impact.

The projection was included in the National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Action Plan 2083, approved on Thursday by the Executive Committee for National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).

According to the assessment prepared by NDRRMA, around 226,661 people from 51,868 households are expected to be affected by floods, landslides, inundation, soil erosion, and other monsoon-related disasters this season.

Nepal’s monsoon usually enters from the Bay of Bengal in late May or early June and stays active for nearly four months. In recent years, the season has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed withdrawal and intense early rainfall triggering floods, landslides, and inundation across the country, says the report.

Women are projected to make up the majority of those affected, accounting for 51.1% of the estimated victims. The report also projects impacts on 4,500 women of reproductive age, 4,900 persons with disabilities, 18,000 children under five, and around 47,000 elderly people.

Lumbini Province is expected to be the worst affected, with 51,626 people from 11,814 households projected to suffer impacts during the monsoon. Dang district is likely to record the highest number of affected people in the province at 7,771, while Rukum East is expected to be the least affected with 206 people.

Koshi Province is projected to be the second hardest hit, with 38,736 people from 8,863 households expected to be affected. Sunsari district tops the risk list in the province with an estimated 9,224 affected people, while Ilam is expected to see the lowest impact.

Madhesh Province ranks third, with 35,361 people from 8,092 households projected to be affected. Rautahat is expected to be the worst-hit district in Madhesh, while Bara is projected to record the fewest cases.

Sudurpashchim Province is expected to see 33,227 people affected, followed by Bagmati Province with 32,897 projected victims. In Bagmati, Dolakha is likely to be the most affected district, while Bhaktapur is expected to record the lowest impact.

In Gandaki Province, authorities estimate that 21,641 people could be affected, with Nawalpur facing the highest risk. Karnali Province is projected to be the least affected overall, although more than 13,000 people are still expected to face monsoon-related disasters there.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures during this year’s monsoon season, which usually begins on June 13 and lasts until October 2.

Despite the prediction of reduced rainfall, authorities have warned that rising temperatures could increase the risks of glacial lake outburst floods, flash floods, landslides, and heatwaves, particularly in Himalayan and southern Tarai regions.

According to government data, monsoon-related disasters have killed 3,074 people and left 502 missing in Nepal over the past decade. Landslides caused the highest number of deaths, followed by lightning strikes and floods.

Authorities have assigned different ministries responsibilities for disaster preparedness, rescue operations, relief distribution, and recovery coordination ahead of the monsoon season.