Disasters loom large in Nepal as the planet overheats. Yet it cares less?

If the mounting scientific evidence and recent surge in climate events worldwide are harbingers of anything, it is the impending onslaught of more pronounced disasters for the planet and humanity. 

The Earth's systems have now surpassed critical thresholds. The Hindu Kush Himalayas, a vital freshwater source for South Asia, are vanishing, alongside the Andes and the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. The Amazon rainforest, the world's largest tropical rainforest, is suffocating under its own carbon emissions exacerbated by global warming and wildfires, perpetuating a destructive feedback loop. Additionally, warm-water coral reef ecosystems are rapidly declining due to rising sea surface temperatures and overexploitation. 

Climate scientists have unequivocally observed a staggering surge in intense climate-related disasters in recent years.

Climate disasters strike worldwide
From 2014 to 2017, Central America's Dry Corridor, a tropical dry forest region, endured severe distress. Prolonged drought, exacerbated by El Niño—a warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean—led to food emergencies and human crises, particularly in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. The parched conditions in the corridor drove significant migration towards the US.

In 2019, several South American countries—Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Brazil—experienced torrential rainfall, triggering floods and landslides. Prior to this, Peru and other South American nations faced persistent rainfall between 2016 and 2017 causing devastating floods and mudslides, following a Coastal El Niño event caused by warming along the South American coast from 2014 to 2016.

In late 2019, Australia witnessed one of its deadliest wildfires, which ravaged the land for months (photos here) and impacted nearly 3 billion animals. In June 2021, unprecedented heat waves in Canada claimed over 500 lives, with temperatures soaring to a record 49.6°C, while heavy rainfall induced floods that devastated parts of Europe, resulting in over 175 fatalities in Germany alone and more than 40 in Belgium in July—the wealthiest countries in the West.

During the same month, Zhengzhou, China, experienced extreme rainfall that claimed the lives of at least 33 people. Zhengzhou, known for hosting one of the largest iPhone assembly plants (which was not impacted), recorded its highest daily rainfall since weather records began, with precipitation equivalent to eight months' worth in a single day.

As of now, Turkey is grappling with flash floods that have claimed over 80 lives, while Greece is battling raging wildfires.

These events underscore a troubling trend: scientists have increasingly linked these deadly disasters, more intense than ever before, with climate change.

The IPCC 2021 says climate change inevitable and irreversible
Now, the new (sixth) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report has come out with some stark warnings about global warming and the planet.

The latest report, described as 'code red for humanity' by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, warns that we have likely missed the opportunity to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, with 2 degrees Celsius becoming increasingly probable within the next two decades. This scenario could unleash widespread extreme weather events such as heavy downpours, intense floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, and prolonged droughts.

Spanning 3,949 pages and authored by 234 climate scientists, the report attributes unprecedented climate changes, unseen for thousands or even hundreds of thousands of years, to human activities and warns that some effects of climate change are now inevitable and irreversible.

Referring to the report, Guterres emphasized, 'It must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet.'

The IPCC's previous report (the fifth) was released in 2014, but it was since its inaugural report in the late 1980s, that the IPCC has consistently warned about the catastrophic potential of global warming.

Nepal's own study, a 2017 study by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DOHM) examined temperature changes from 1970 to 2017 and found that Nepal’s average temperature has risen by 0.056 degrees Celsius, compared to the global average increase of 0.03 degrees Celsius.

Nepal awaits hazardous climate blows
Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to disasters. According to the German Watch's 2021 Global Climate Risk Index, Nepal ranks among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change between 2000 and 2019, alongside Puerto Rico, Myanmar, Haiti, the Philippines, Mozambique, the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Thailand.

Across disaster risk reduction, preparedness, management, humanitarian efforts and post-disaster rehabilitation and recovery, Nepal has shown significant shortcomings, attributable to various socio-political and economic conditions.

For instance, despite warnings and scientific predictions of an inevitable deadly earthquake, Nepal was unprepared when the devastating 2015 earthquake struck, claiming thousands of lives and causing widespread destruction, pushing many into poverty. The subsequent economic recovery and reconstruction efforts have been slow, while the recent pandemic has further worsened its economy.

As a hotspot for natural hazards, these disasters only exacerbate its existing socio-economic challenges. Recently, the disaster-prone Sindhupalchowk region suffered from floods and debris flow at the Melamchi River, severely impacting infrastructure including the long-awaited Melamchi Drinking Water Project, after more than two decades of development. Billions of investments and hopes now hang in the balance, with experts attributing the disaster in part to global warming.

Similarly, this year, the country saw a record number of 6,537 widlfire incidents — killing 11 people. Climate experts predict wildfire incidents will continue to rise in the coming years.

Additionally, the Himalayan region faces annual monsoon-induced floods and landslides, affecting millions of people in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh. These events are intensifying due to erratic monsoon patterns. The region will need to prepare for future disasters, including floods and droughts, which could exacerbate poverty, hunger, and disease.

All these calamities pose significant risks to Nepal's economic sectors, including hydropower infrastructure, tourism, and agriculture. With Nepal already on the brink of more pronounced disasters and ensuing crises, any further acceleration in mountain ice melt, already at alarming levels, could destabilise entire ecosystems, livelihoods, tourism industries, and downstream river systems, resulting in catastrophic losses of lives, biodiversity, cultural heritage and wealth, for what the country has little to do with. Historically, Nepal has had a minimal carbon footprint, accounting for less than one percent of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

A larger onus thus lies with larger emitters. In 2018, the share of four countries alone, China, the US, India, and Russia, accounted for over 50 percent (55.1%) of global fossil fuel emissions, while the EU (including the UK) contributed an additional 9.1%. While a 2017 study linked just 100 active fossil fuel producers, such as ExxonMobil, Shell, Aramco, BHP, CNPC, and Gazprom, to 71% of industrial greenhouse gas emissions since 1988.

What must change?
Firstly, it is deeply concerning that Nepal’s political leadership has failed to address the urgent IPCC report and its implications for national security. The topic has been conspicuously absent from parliamentary discussions, highlighting a disconnect from global realities but immensely invested into their own selfish political bubble and squabble. Engrossed in internal political conflicts, Nepal's leaders show little inclination to take ownership of the climate crisis agenda and lead meaningful action.

Secondly, Nepal is yet to see homegrown youth, civil and grassroots climate and environmental movement akin to impactful international efforts. While global campaigns have raised awareness and political urgency, Nepal's political leadership remains insensitive and apathetic. Change makers must initiate impactful campaigns to break through this inertia and compel international partners to listen.

Thirdly, so far Nepal has failed to show spine and initiative at international tables despite being on the front lines of climate vulnerability. Planners and policymakers hesitate to hold wealthy industrialised nations accountable, reflecting a lack of courage in international forums.

The Nepal government did put on a show like the 2009 cabinet meeting at Kala Patthar back ahead of the Copanhagen Climate Summit, imitating the Maldivian government’s under-the-ocean ministerial meeting, but it only proved to be a perfunctory act. It took another 11 years for the government to plan something effortless as Sagarmatha Sambad (Everest Dialogue), a biennial global dialogue forum planned for 2020, but unfolding of the pandemic led to its postponement. The event now hangs in limbo. 

In contrast, Nepal's South Asian neighbor, the Maldives, has previously demonstrated innovative leadership in climate action. It established the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the V20 group, a dedicated cooperation initiative of economies systemically vulnerable to climate change. These efforts complemented bold initiatives like the underwater ministerial meeting aimed at highlighting the existential threat from rising sea levels. The Maldives even committed to becoming carbon-neutral by 2020, demonstrating a strong global leadership stance, but subsequent governments scaled back these ambitions, reflecting a loss of momentum in the global climate debate that the Maldives initiated so impressively.

The V20 countries now look into colossal future losses, including significant annual deaths and economic setbacks. Collectively, they face exponential rise in number of deaths by 2030 which stand at an average of more than 50,000 annual deaths, annual losses of at least 2.5 percent of their GDP potential, and an estimated $45 billion since 2010 which is expected to swell to $400 billion over the next 20 years, says their official communiqué released in 2015.

In defence, these vulnerable nations must unite more forcefully, amplify their voices, and exert international pressure. They must demand accountability, accelerate decarbonisation efforts, and ensure fulfillment of climate financing commitments from wealthy nations, who bear primary responsibility for global emissions.

Forget emission cuts, the rich are yet to deliver on the annual 100 billion dollar investment pledge for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, a promise they made a decade ago during the Cancun climate summit. Moreover, a study indicates over-reporting of climate adaptation finance, with funds intended for Nepal's earthquake recovery also classified under this misleading category.

The harsh reality is that frontline countries like Nepal have no margin for error. Continuing with business-as-usual—talks without emission cuts or adequate finance—will only deepen their vulnerability. It is time for Nepal to shed its passive diplomacy, demand genuine action, and confront the realities of climate change head-on.

Nepal has to pull its act together on its own too
Firstly, Nepal needs to deeply reflect on its development model, which is inefficient, unsustainable, unequal, and directionless.

Secondly, it must prioritise and make bold, wise, and substantial investments to mitigate the environmental bads it has done so far. Issues such as haphazard and sprawling urbanisation, severe degradation of rivers and critical resources like land and forests, as well as unsustainable development projects and inadequate public transportation, are self-inflicted problems that require immediate correction on one's own initiatives.

Thirdly, Nepal must establish effective policy frameworks that simplify processes, ensure transparent climate investments, and guarantee the sustainability and corruption-free nature of projects. The international partners must also draw a clear line where their investment goes (some areas need to be left alone for one’s own initiative) while press for sustainable development goals with reasonable ultimatums.

Fourthly, Nepal urgently needs to reform and strengthen its disaster planning for prevention, management, and responses.

A bad storm is, perhaps, not too far away.